Iran and allies weigh retaliation after strikes in Tehran and Beirut – Technologist

A red flag was hoisted over the Jamkaran mosque on Wednesday, July 31, a significant site for Twelver Shi’ism near the religious city of Qom. This act was a symbol of “great vengeance” following the assassination of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran, which was attributed to Israel. The flag had previously been raised in January 2020 after the US killed Iranian General Qasem Soleimani, head of the Revolutionary Guards’ Quds Force and a key figure in the “axis of resistance” against Israel.

In a rare move, Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei will personally lead the funeral prayer for the Hamas leader, which takes place on Thursday, August 1, at Tehran University. Haniyeh’s remains will then be transported to Doha, Qatar, where he resided. Ayatollah Khamenei warned Israel that “following this bitter, tragic event which has taken place within the borders of the Islamic Republic, it is our duty to take revenge.”

Similar promises of revenge were made by Hamas, Iraqi Shiite militias, and Yemeni Houthis within the axis of resistance, a sign of concerted action behind the scenes. Lebanon-based Hezbollah has asserted that the death of Haniyeh is going to “strengthen the determination” of Tehran’s allied groups to confront Israel. However, it has not yet commented on the Israeli strike that targeted military chief Fouad Shukur on Tuesday night, in the southern suburbs of Beirut. Hassan Nasrallah is expected to speak at the funeral of his right-hand man, whose body was found in the rubble on Wednesday afternoon.

Restoring the balance of deterrence

These calls for revenge leave little doubt about the likelihood of a response against Israel. For Iran and its allies, red lines have been crossed by the Israeli state, and the balance of deterrence must be restored. “In terms of image, the assassination of Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran is worse for the Islamic Republic than the strike against its embassy in Damascus on April 1. Because it took place in Iran, a few hours after the inauguration of the new president, and hit a senior Hamas official,” said Arman Mahmoudian, a researcher at the Global and National Security Institute at the University of South Florida. “If Iran doesn’t respond, especially in the event of a confirmed missile or a drone attack, it will be seen as a sign of great weakness.”

For Hezbollah, another red line was crossed on Tuesday by the Israeli state, which the Islamist movement accuses of attempting to alter the tacit rules of engagement on the Lebanese front. Since it opened a front in support of Hamas in the Gaza Strip in October 2023, Hezbollah has adhered to a principle of reciprocity in its strikes and targets. A milestone was reached not so much in the elimination of Shukur himself but by the bombing of his stronghold in Beirut, located in a densely populated residential area. The party had previously threatened to target cities like Haifa or Tel Aviv if Beirut were attacked. With five dead and over 80 wounded in these strikes, the Shiite party needs to reassure its popular base of its ability to defend them.

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